Sub-Prime No Longer The Main Reason For Foreclosures
Wednesday, July 23rd, 2008Sub-primes are no longer the main reasons for foreclosures. Today the main culprit is the rapid decline in real estate prices.
The foreclosure epidemic of North County is rapidly spreading not because of sub-prime so much as because of many other factors that have led to a fall in the real estate market.
Oceanside and east Escondido were two of the worst affected regions. During the past three months the numbers have gone down. But foreclosures have marched into the adjacent areas of San Marcos and Carlsbad where the numbers are growing. Experts say that today the problem is not so much the risk factor as the decline in property prices that is triggering off foreclosures. It has become a vicious circle – price decline is leading to more foreclosures and more foreclosures are leading to further price decline. Sean O’Toole of ForeclosureRadar that tracks foreclosures commented’ “It’s like a toilet bowl effect.”
According to the findings of a study conducted by the Boston Federal Reserve, house owners who lost over 20% of the value of their houses are 14 times more susceptible to be cursed by foreclosure, than a typical borrower. In sharp contract sub-prime borrowers are six times more likely to succumb to foreclosures than prime borrowers.
According to ForeclosureRadar north Oceanside saw a drop in foreclosures during the last three months, but San Marcos foreclosures increased by 28% during the same three months. The problem is also growing in Vista and Carlsbad affecting the higher priced houses.
Ward Hanigan of Innovest, an investment firm of San Diego opines that this trend will continue till 2010. His company is biding its time for the foreclosure weather to change. The signal will be when banks will be selling properties in a wholesale manner with two or three being sold at one go. As yet that liquidation mind set has not begun, he commented.
New default numbers are declining. The default notice is the first step in the judicial process of foreclosure. In North County foreclosure proceedings have been finalized on 30% of the foreclosed units. Bank owned properties make up above 40% of the foreclosed units. It indicates that sub-prime lenders have been successfully been able to work out many loans satisfactorily without going into foreclosure. Another pointer to the domination of price being the main factor in foreclosures is the negative equity of the properties in question.
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